Covid-19 Infection Rates

I wanted to do my bit to highlight the need to socially distance at the moment. In addition to outreach astronomy I’ve worked as a mathematical modeller and simulation programmer for many years. Yesterday I decided to create a very simple demonstration to show how infectious Covid-19 is relative to something like the flu.

The red balls represent new cases of Covid-19 based on one individual passing the virus on and creating a human chain reaction. The blue balls represent the same situation for flu. The simulation shows you how many more people will become infected with Covid-19 relative to flu after the same number of transmission waves (9 in this case).

Typically an individual with flu will pass the virus onto 1.3 other people (called the R0 value). With Covid 19 this spreading rate is much higher – between 2.3 and 3. At its worst therefore an infected person will pass the virus onto 3 other people. That might not sound like much but due to exponential growth this level of transmission is like a bomb going off.

Stay safe everyone and please heed the guidelines. With proper social distancing the cascade on the right can be repressed.

Note: This simulation is not validated in any way by medical experts and is for illustrative purposes only.

Developed by S Mackintosh (Mackintosh Modelling & Data Simulations)


Red Blood Cell Simulations

I’ve recently finished part one of a mini Unity project looking at the stacking behavior of red blood cells in a basic turbulent flow. In this real time simulation you can see how the contact adhesion and stacking rate of red cells increases as plasma Fibrinogen concentrations increase.

Fluid flow was programmed from first principles using some simplified assumptions and custom code generated for red cell attraction and adhesion as a function of plasma content.

This simulation is VR ready so you can don a headset and fly around and study any part of the domain in real time. This simulation can also be ported over to more complex domains.

Stage two of the simulation will include deformation of the red cells during contact with domain walls and other cells.

These stacking effects happen in patients with various blood clotting conditions or super high haematocrits.
Developed By Mackintosh Modelling and Data Simulations