Moon Formation

Modelling suggests the Earth came very close to having a pair of smaller Moons.

According to simulations by Canup and Ida (2014) the Earth came very close to hosting two smaller Moon’s (right) rather than the large single Moon we ended up with (left).

This fascinating ‘what if’ modelling is based on the giant impact hypothesis. A faster rate of rotation of the post impact disk is the main requirement for a two Moon system to take hold.

Of course multiple moon system are very common. Saturn for example has an abundance of them, with the most recent count totalling 82 orbiting bodies.

Colour Image: Artist’s impression of an alien world with two moons by Angela Harburn.

Covid-19 Analytics

coronavirus-4833754_960_720.jpgI’ve been busy developing a Covid-19 predictive model using R Studio’s Shiny development environment. This project started as a way of informing myself of what might be happening locally but subsequently grew wings.

It’s using UK and Scottish gov. data on infection rates to make predictions of likely infection levels within various health service regions. The concept of recovery is built into the model as a way of measuring residual levels of infectivity within a population. A user can supply the geographic region as well as change model parameters and assumptions about how the virus is impacting a health system

It’s still at a fairly basic stage and more is being added weekly. National metrics on testing rates have recently been implemented, for example.

If you’d like to sample the app please get in touch and I’ll send you a link. With the help of colleagues I’m in the process of securing a permanent server to deploy the app onto so I can share the work more widely.

Developed by Mackintosh Modelling & Data Simulations.

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